The deficit debate

I thought it might be worth posting in full my opening of the debate on the pre-budget report in the House of Commons this week.

Here I set out the argument for precisely how we halve the decifit over the next four years – and how the sums add up – and second, gently make the point that the Conservatives still have a £34 billion credibility gap to fill before they even get close to matching us on the level of detail needed to be taken seriously on the question.

Text below

I welcome the chance to open today’s debate, the first on the pre-Budget report. I welcome it because decisions as significant as these should be tested in debate, so that the House and the public whom we represent can see clearly where each party stands and, amidst the arguments that we have in the media and elsewhere outside, where the policy of each party really rests.

 

We on the Government Benches are very clear about where we stand. We stand on the side of workers, businesses and home owners, who need protection from the worst global recession in 60 years, and for locking in recovery. We stand for taking the difficult decisions that will be needed to halve the deficit over the four years to come, while protecting our priorities for public services. We also stand for investing in growth, new jobs, new industries and new infrastructure that together will be vital in balancing our economy better in the years to come.

 

I hope that the crispness and clarity of our position in this debate will be matched, especially by the Opposition. This week, policy pose after policy pose has given way to position after position, sometimes with up to three difference stances in one afternoon. However, credit where credit is due: the Opposition are nothing if not nimble, as they hop madly between constituencies that they are so desperate to please. We will have none of that on this side of the House, so let me use the few minutes allotted to me this afternoon to set out some of the measures that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor presented before Christmas.

 

The first objective of our policy as set out in the pre-Budget report is, of course, to secure the recovery. When we look back over the year that has passed, we are glad that we ignored the idiosyncratic advice proffered by the Opposition and, instead of doing nothing, as they suggested, chose to act: to rescue the banking system from the brink of collapse; to cut VAT; to invest £5 billion in jobcentres, which have helped 3 million people out of unemployment in the past year; to introduce measures to allow families to stay in their homes, helping to ensure that repossessions are two times lower than in the 1990s recession; and to set up the Time to Pay scheme, which has helped more 160,000 businesses to spread their tax payments over a timetable that they can afford, helping to keep insolvency rates three times lower than in the 1990s.

 

In the pre-Budget report, the Chancellor forecast a return to growth, but as we know, over the next period unemployment may continue to rise in the short term. So to lock in the recovery, the Chancellor said that he was able to do more: by extending the Time to Pay scheme for as long as it is needed; by deferring the proposed increase in corporation tax for smaller companies, leaving the 2010 tax rate unchanged for nearly 900,000 small businesses; by freezing support for mortgage interest at 6.08 per cent. for six months more, to help people who are worried about their mortgage payments; and, perhaps most importantly, by ensuring that every 18 to 24-year-old who has been out of work for more than six months is offered the chance of a job, training or community service.

 

However, the second point made by the Chancellor in the pre-Budget report is about looking ahead-to the years beyond 2010 and the return to growth and prosperity in the years to come. I am afraid that those years of growth will not be years without difficult decisions-indeed, they will be full of them-and especially not without the decisions needed to halve the deficit and protect our priorities in public services. We have said that, in our judgment, the right time frame over which to execute this difficult decision is the 48 months up to the end of 2013-14.

 

It is fair to say that the Conservatives have questioned our judgment that four years is the right time frame over which to halve the deficit, but their questioning has been in the style and manner of rather open-ended, slightly ponderous thinking aloud. They have not offered an alternative proposition, such as reducing our four-year time frame to three. They know what the price of such a move would be, and they seem unsure whether they want to pay it.

 

First, let me return to the question of the level of detail, because the House is right to ask how the sums will add up in 2013-14. In framing my remarks, I should like to draw on the excellent report from the Treasury Select Committee and the evidence presented to the Committee by the Chancellor and by Her Majesty’s chief economic adviser.

 

Our judgment is that the deficit must fall from £178 billion this year to £96 billion in 2013-14, a fall of £82 billion. We anticipate that £25 billion of that sum will come from growth, and the return to business as usual, including the reversion of the VAT rate, but, as the Chancellor said to the Treasury Committee, £57 billion must come from discretionary action-in other words, decisions. As the chief economic adviser said to the Committee, we have decided to deliver two thirds of that sum through spending, and one third through new taxes. On decisions on tax, we have set out plans to raise £19 billion from new taxes, which we have sought to introduce in a fair way by ensuring that 60 per cent. of them are paid by the top 5 per cent. of earners in this country. That leaves £38 billion to be secured from spending cuts.

 

Capital investment must fall, as it safely can, from today’s historically unprecedented level. In the 2008 pre-Budget report and the 2009 Budget, we announced substantial reductions to the overall capital spending budget, and that is set out on page 189 of the pre-Budget report book. Yes, Departments will have to cut back, which is why we have reduced our plans for current expenditure from 2011 onwards.

 

That is why this pre-Budget report, together with the command paper “Putting the Frontline First”, announced £20 billion of cuts and efficiencies. If the House will bear with me, I think that it will be helpful if I run through them. They include: £8 billion to be delivered by 2012-13, identified across the public sector through cutbacks in Whitehall through the operational efficiency programme; £600 million from the greater use of online systems to deliver public services; £650 million from cuts in consultancy, marketing and communication spending across government; £550 million from cutting back on quangos and arm’s-length bodies; £550 million from local government, including reducing the costs of inspection; £140 million from cutting senior civil service costs by 20 per cent.; £1.4 billion from ending temporary employment measures as unemployment falls; £850 million from delaying things that can wait, or from cutting back systems such as the NHS IT programme; £900 million from asking businesses and students to pay a little more for training; £360 million from reforming the criminal justice system and legal aid; and £730 million from focusing regeneration and transport spending on areas where it is needed most.

 

Of course, to this sum may be added the windfall of lower unemployment. For the purpose of the PBR, we made the extremely cautious assumption that unemployment would not fall. In fact, if unemployment does indeed come down, as we expect it to, the benefits bill will be billions of pounds lower. It is also possible that, as the economy grows faster-as the Bank of England has projected-there will be further fruits of growth in the years to come.

 

The House will rightly ask how such windfalls will be put to use. I will state the position bluntly, by repeating what the Chancellor said to the Treasury Committee. He said that, in the event that growth turns out to be more robust than in his forecast, borrowing would naturally fall faster, and that it would then be possible to reduce the structural deficit further in the medium term.

 

The pre-Budget report set out plans to rebalance our economy in the years to come. In the Budget, we said that we would do this through fair tax increases and the tighter control of public spending, to ensure that long-term interest rates were kept low. That point has often been made by the hon. Member for Runnymede and Weybridge (Mr. Hammond). There are now great strengths on which we can build in the years to come. We have low interest rates and low inflation. We also have the most flexible labour market in Europe, the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G7 and a competition regime that is among the best in the world. That is why we are judged to be one of the best places in the world in which to do business and to attract inward investment.

 

The pre-Budget report develops those strengths. It sets out how we will maintain our leadership in the low-carbon sector, how we will boost investment in our national infrastructure and skills, and how we will support our world-class high-tech industries. Over the next year or two, we will extend by £500 million the amount of lending available to small and medium-sized enterprises, through a 12-month extension of the enterprise finance guarantee scheme.

 

We have created a new growth capital fund, with a new £325 million. We have created Infrastructure UK, which will help to accelerate private sector investment in new infrastructure. We are proposing to introduce a patent box, which is a reduced rate of corporation tax applying to income from patents from April 2013. We have also proposed £200 million for the strategic investment fund, of which £150 million will be routed to support low-carbon investment. We are doubling the UK’s commitment to funding carbon capture and storage demonstration sites from two to four. We are increasing support for low-carbon vehicles and setting out additional funding for low-carbon industries and energy efficiency, including Warm Front. Those are all policies-indeed, all ambitions-in which the Conservative party has little interest.

 

I hope that over the hours to come, we get a chance to explore some of the myths thrown around during the last week, starting perhaps with the most important question of whether our plan to cut the deficit is fast enough. Is it fast enough, for example, for the people who buy our bonds? We have heard a lot about the intentions of PIMCO and some of the quotations bandied around the House to date have, of course, been a bit selective and one-sided, if I may say so. PIMCO, reflecting on the flight to safety that brought buyers to UK bonds and brought gilt rates so low is naturally thinking about divestment into riskier assets as the world economy returns to its former state. This is not a new notion, as that was said last July.

 

Is the plan fast enough for the Governor of the Bank of England? The shadow Chancellor is fond of quoting the Governor. The shadow Chancellor is not in his place.

 

In fact, the full answer from the Governor of the Bank of England on this question paints a very different picture. He gave his answer in evidence to the Treasury Select Committee, saying:

 

“It is certainly true that if you eliminate the deficit too aggressively it will have an adverse consequence.”

 

He went on to say:

 

“You have to take action to bring down the deficit of the size we have-it is a very large structural deficit-but to do so at a rate that is consistent with the restoration of growth in the economy”.

 

That is why we propose to reduce the structural deficit from 9 per cent. to 3.6 per cent. in the space of just one Parliament.

 

Is our deficit reduction plan fast enough for the ratings agencies? Again, their views are sometimes traduced in this House, but the reality is that in Moody’s analysis published last month, both the US and the UK triple A ratings are described as “resilient”; all three rating agencies have acknowledged the UK has access to particularly deep and liquid capital markets; and on perhaps the ultimate test of demand, gilt auction performance remains strong. Ten-year gilt yields averaged over 11 per cent. in the 1980s; they are now around 4 per cent. I hope that all these arguments and more are debated this afternoon.

 

If I were forced to characterise this pre-Budget report, I would say that the sweep of its ambition is matched by the depth of its detail. In the debates that we have had-not only in this place, but in the media and elsewhere, and particularly in the debates the hon. Member for Runnymede and Weybridge and I have had late at night in TV studios around London since 9 December-I am sure that you, Mr. Deputy Speaker, will have been struck like me by the sheer contrast between 212 pages of detail on specific, pressure-tested proposals and the vacuous nonsense of the Conservative party.

 

The truth is that the Conservatives have been love-bombing every audience they can find within easy reach of a press conference, and with that love-bombing has come a new lexicon of ambiguity. Thus, instead of a straight “promise”, we now have a “pledge”, an “aspiration”, a “commitment” or a “No. 1 priority”.

 

This morning the Leader of the Opposition continued his careless whispers, reassuring listeners to the “Today” programme. He said that he would have to be tough and pull back from the Conservatives’ guarantee of 45,000 single rooms in the national health service.

 

It could not be a pledge, he said, but he told the listeners not to worry, because “it is an aspiration”. It seems that the Conservatives now cannot stop adding to their now famous “queue” of commitments. We all remember what a Tory queue looks like. We used to call them waiting lists, and they were so long that people often expired before they reached the front.

 

The Conservatives’ “all things to all people” policy has left them with a £34 billion credibility hole that they cannot airbrush away. If the Shadow Chancellor spent more than 40 per cent. of his time on economics, perhaps the hon. Member for Runnymede and Weybridge would not be in such an embarrassing position this afternoon; but he is, and the whole House is looking forward to seeing whether he can climb out of the hole in which his party leaders have left him.