The slow lane back to growth?

George Osborne’s plan to cut £6bn from public spending this year was a key debate in the recent general election – and risks putting Britain in the slow lane back to growth.

During the election, Labour’s argument against the Tories’ plan was two-fold:

First, that pressing ahead with these cuts, in year and on top of our existing ambitious efficiency programme, would mean hitting frontline public services.

Second, that with the recovery just underway, now was not the time to be taking risks with people’s jobs by taking money out of the economy.

The Liberal Democrats, and Vince Cable in particular, agreed. Here’s the link to what Vince Cable said in January: “I do not think we should rush into rapid cuts”.

We intend to be a responsible opposition. But we will be powerful and effective check on this Tory-Liberal Government.

On Monday the coalition will announce details of how they will make these cuts. This will provide a first test for the new Government. And of the influence of the Liberals on the Tories.

Today I make two predictions:

That we will see real cuts, not efficiencies, announced on Monday. Cuts with a real impact on peoples’ lives. That would be in direct contradiction to George Osborne and David Cameron’s clear promise that frontline services wouldn’t be cut.

Second, my guess is that Vince Cable will have lost out to George Osborne who will push ahead with taking the vast majority of the £6bn out of the economy – a risk that we shouldn’t be making now – with only a token few hundred million being reinvested to save the Lib Dems blushes.

I hope I am wrong. But if on Monday we do see cuts to frontline services like skills or university places, or investment in rebalancing our economy then our clear warning about the Conservatives’ plans will I’m afraid have come to pass. No amount of joint press conferences or Liberals in the Cabinet will have made an ounce of difference.  The “new politics”, will look like old fashioned broken promises.

My fear is that George Osborne is determined to set course for the slow lane out of recession – and a return to the economy of the past by axing investment in the skills and jobs of the future.

Finally, it would be completely unacceptable if this announcement of cuts, and this change in Government’s spending plans, is being made anywhere other than in the House of Commons.

That’s why Rosie Winterton wrote to the Speaker yesterday, asking him what can be done about George Osborne’s plan to make this announcement in a press conference rather than to Parliament.