Liam Byrne, re-elected MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill » Blog

How Nick Clegg misled voters

Liam Byrne — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 15:25:46 +0000

Nick Robinson’s documentary on the formation of the Tory Liberal government tonight contains a staggering admission from Nick Clegg – that he’d changed his mind about cuts before the election, but chose not to share this with the electorate.

The Guardian has the story here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/29/nick-clegg-changed-mind-cuts

This shows Nick Clegg simply misled voters. He’d clearly decided before the election that David Cameron was his partner of choice.

Our £12 million new Saltley school: update

Liam Byrne MP — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 17:26:12 +0000

As local resident will know, the Tories aided and abetted by the Lib Dems cut nearly £30 million from our local school-building programme. We have a few schools still going ahead – and one of them is a new Saltley school, not renewed on any major scale since 1928!

Liam and Saltley pupils plant a tree from Prince Charles

Here’s the update I’ve got on plans, overseen by the amazing head, Anne Cole…

Mrs Cole

Our Ref: HT/MAC/jmc

14^th June 2010

Mr Liam Byrne, MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill, House of Commons, London SW1A 0AA

Dear Liam

Thank you for your recent letter and interest in the Saltley BSF project. In response to the specific questions you have raised:

1) The Building Schools for The Future programme is seen by the school as fundamental to providing the local community with the school it deserves to meet the educational requirements of local children in the 21^st century.

Saltley School was originally built in 1928 and many of the school buildings and classrooms are outdated and in need of major repair works. Classrooms generally are too small with 30 pupils being taught in rooms as small as 35m2 (against a government recommended size of 56m2).

The School’s smaller gym is not fit for purpose and will be demolished whilst the School’s largest gym is prone to flooding every time it rains heavily. A key part of the plan is to provide a new Sports Hall to cater for the needs of the pupils and the community.

All of the specialist teaching areas urgently require modernisation and new equipment.

We can also create a purpose built dining hall to replace the current modular building.

The BSF project also allows for Saltley School to admit an extra form of entry of pupils per year. This is required to address the deficit of local school places due to the rising local population in this area.

2) The school is now applying for planning permission having agreed the 1:200 designs of the refurbished/remodelled school. Financial Close is scheduled for the end of 2010 and building work will start Dec 2010 / Jan 2011.

The school has been planning this project for over 4 years with full consultation with parents, pupils, staff and the local community.

The school has also been active in helping shape the Birmingham BSF project as a whole by helping select the preferred bidder and acting as schools representatives throughout the sample scheme programme. Saltley’s Business Manager was part of the FM working group that drew up the Birmingham BSF FM contract which was rated in an independent gateway review by 4Ps as ‘The best FM contract in the country’. Work is ongoing in this area with Birmingham Schools Representatives working with BCC and Catalyst to ensure that the schools achieve the best value for money possible through the BSF process.

3) We envisage the new Saltley School being a state of the art teaching facility with equipment and facilities to meet 21^st century learning.

The ICT investment will mean that local children, from one of the top 1% deprivation index areas, will have access to some of the best ICT facilities in the country.

The school will be modernised to be fully DDA compatible allowing us to cater for pupils with disabilities for the first time.

4) Our vision is incorporated into the BSF Output specification , part of which follows:

We wish at Saltley School to be regarded as an exemplary centre of Excellence in Education, dedicated to nurturing a strong sense of purpose, ambition and confidence throughout the entire school community.

Pupils at Saltley will strive to achieve and exceed challenging academic, personal and social targets though a culture of enterprise, innovation and creativity.

Staff at Saltley will promote the highest standards of spiritual, moral and ethical development to enable our pupils to become Global Citizens.

We will develop and nurture high quality teaching and learning in an inspirational environment.

An improved lunchtime experience for all the school is a priority and a vibrant, airy, light dining area with appropriate spaces for queuing and serving will encourage pupils and staff to enjoy healthy meals in a safe and sociable environment.

Saltley’s specialism, science, will pervade all other curriculum areas and be possibly linked to ICT and Maths.

Curriculum areas, on a cluster basis, will be capable of delivering the curriculum, initially through traditionally based, departmental models, but will also be adaptable and flexible enough to respond to the inevitable changes in curriculum needs and the consequent changes in pedagogy these will bring.

A priority is the security of the site to ensure the health and safety of staff and pupils. This is of particular importance because of the extensive nature of the site.

The newly refurbished building will also enable expansion for post 16 provision and the architects are indicating the possible location on the site master plan.

The final building will inevitably be a compromise which is limited by:

a) The available funding

b) The outdated recommendations of BB98 (ironic for a 21^st Century building!)

c) The constraints of refurbishing a 1928 building

However we are confident the many hours of detailed work we have put into the plans will produce a massively improved school which we eagerly anticipate.

We enclose a draft copy of the Planning Design Access Statement for your interest which we feel neatly summarises Saltley’s BSF project.

Yours sincerely

Anne Cole

Headteacher

Putting local residents in charge in Shard End

Liam Byrne MP — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 17:12:58 +0000

Some residents will have heard that we won some money from the last (Labour) government to pull together a plan designed to step up the way local residents influence the way services are delivered locally. For those interested in tracking progress, I’ve posted the action plan below

Together at Shard End

An action plan for community cohesion

May 2010

Shard End Community Cohesion Action Plan May 2010.

Issue.	Task.		Required outcomes.	Officer responsible.	Resource.		Timeline.
Living together positively.
Hate crime.	Tackling racial harassment. (i) “no tolerance of racial harassment” campaign. (ii) development of Third Party reporting networks. (iii) publicity for reporting networks. (iv) multi agency racial harassment training for officers. (v) consistency between adult, young people’s and educational services. (vi) publicity for successful actions.		(i) increased reporting of racial harassment. (ii) increased successful resolution of racial harassment cases. (iii) minority communities feel that the area is one where people from different backgrounds get on well together. (iv) reduction in racism at Kitts Green shops. (v) improved performance against NI1 the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together.	Margaret Dieterman, but partnership approach required with Police and Crime Reduction Partnership.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Hate crime.	Tackling domestic violence. (i) increased reporting of domestic violence. (ii) increased successful resolution of domestic violence cases. (iii) grow community domestic, voluntary and involvement networks. (iv) relationships and respect training in secondary schools. (v) baseline research about the acceptability of domestic violence.		(i) increased reporting of domestic violence. (ii) increased successful resolution of domestic violence cases. (iii) improved performance against the extent to which people are satisfied with the local area (NI5).	Margaret Dieterman, but partnership approach required with Police and Crime Reduction Partnership.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Hate crime	Tackling hate crime against disabled people. (i) “no tolerance of harassment” campaign. (ii) development of Third Party reporting networks. (iii) publicity for reporting networks. (iv) multi agency harassment training for officers. (v) consistency between adult, young people’s and educational services. (vi) publicity for successful actions.		(i) increased reporting of harassment. (ii) increased successful resolution of harassment cases. (iii) minority communities feel that the area is one where people from different backgrounds get on well together. (iv) improved performance against NI1 the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together.	Margaret Dieterman, but partnership approach required with Police and Crime Reduction Partnership.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Hate crime.	Tackling homophobia. (i) “no tolerance of homophobia” campaign. (ii) development of Third Party reporting networks. (iii) publicity for reporting networks. (iv) multi agency harassment training for officers. (vii) consistency between adult, young people’s and educational services. (viii) publicity for successful actions.		(i) increased reporting of homophobic hate crime. (ii) increased successful resolution of harassment cases. (iii) LGB communities feel that the area is one where people from different backgrounds get on well together. (iv) improved performance against NI1 the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together.	Margaret Dieterman, but partnership approach required with Police and Crime Reduction Partnership.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Far Right influence.	Politicians to lead cross party campaign against Far Right influence. (i) agree approach to Far Right literature. (ii) agreed approach to Far Right doorstep campaigning. (iii) link into myth busting work. (iv) literature promoting racial hatred is flagged to Police.		(i) Far Right literature is tackled through cross party literature. (ii) all non Far Right political parties are projecting a consistent doorstep message against Far Right campaigns. (iii) intelligence from campaigning feeds into myth busting leaflets. (iv) Police take action against political leaflets promoting racial hatred. (v) improved performance against NI1 the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together.	Local Councillors.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Tension monitoring.	Co-ordinated approach to tension monitoring between agencies.		(i) increase in flow of information to ASB unit, police, RSLs. (ii) improved performance against NI1 the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together.	Police and Crime Reduction Partnership.	Existing resources.		September 1, 2010.
Myth busting.	(i) myth busting strategy devised to respond on an ongoing basis to locally emerging issues and using electronic and traditional media. (ii) myth busting work linked to the development of “Welcome Packs“ and “Information Packs” for all residents promoting a “Better Shard End”.		(i) strategy devised and first myth busting interventions made. (ii) actions provide direct positive benefits to established communities through information packs. (iii) improved performance against NI1 the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together.	Margaret Dieterman lead, but multi agency.	Existing resources and identify additional resources from corporate communications.		September 1, 2010.
Greater understanding.	(i) Schools and Youth Clubs and Projects provide a safe space to debate equality and diversity issues. (ii) this is linked to curriculum development. (iii) it is also linked to targeted initiatives around the needs of particular groups. (iv) peer support initiatives are developed. (v) sports and community cohesion initiatives developed to break down postcode and established community/newcomer initiatives.		(i) there is an integrated set of actions that facilitate the discussion of difference, commonalities and support positive links between households at Shard End. (ii) these have been linked to wider community initiatives for example around sports and these are demonstrating positive relationships between different groups. (iii) improved performance against NI1 the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together.	Education and youth services.	Existing resources but also targeted funding from city wide local authority, police and fire services.		March 31, 2011.
Building links and relationships.
Building community links.	Cultural activities. (i) summer fun day – carnival theme and associated activities (jazz, samba, drumming, dance lessons etc). (ii) low key but significant, eg cookery classes. Also Asian women teaching others how to do mehndi and then delivering together. (iii) diversity days in schools – continue learning – play schemes. (iv) red day and green day non uniform days focusing on what we share rather than our differences. (v) Christmas lights switch on.		(i) programme of cultural events is established and run. (ii) low key “events” to bring communities together are integrated into mainstream events and activities (see for example having a stake in society below). (iii) diversity days are programmed and held in schools. (iv) improved performance against the extent to which people from different backgrounds get on well together (NI 1). (v) improved performance against % of people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (vi) improved performance against civic participation by people in the local area (NI 3). (vii) improved performance against the extent to which people are satisfied with the local area (NI5).	Margaret Dieterman lead, but multi agency.	Existing resources.	March 31, 2011.
Linking new and established families	(i) buddying newly arrived families, initially through work with Tenants’ and Residents’ Groups. (ii) following up buddying initiatives with development of support group/network for newly arrived families and vulnerable families. (iii) reconvene the housing befrienders group to initiate a pilot befriending scheme,		(i) each new household arriving on the estate is offered a Tenants’ and Residents’ Group buddy through a housing management initiative. (ii) the “buddy network has become self sustaining and operates as a support group for new estate arrivals. (iii) housing befrienders group has been reconvened and has initiated a pilot befriending scheme, (iv) improved performance against the extent to which people from different background get on well together (NI 1). (v) improved performance against the % of people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (vi) improved performance against young people’s participation in regular volunteering (NI 6).	Housing Management lead supported by Neighbourhood Management and ward forum and constituency strategic partnership.	Existing resources.	(i) September 1, 2010. (ii) March 31, 2011.
Building language capability.	(i) tackling need for ESOL classes as part of wider literacy initiatives.		(i) literacy sessions are promoted and run. (ii) ESOL classes are promoted and run as part of wider literacy campaign. (iii) improved performance against migrants’ English language skills and knowledge (NI 13). (iv) improved performance against learners achieving a Level 1 qualification in literacy (NI 161). (v) improved performance against learners achieving an Entry Level 3 qualification in numeracy (NI 162).	Need advice on lead.	Additional resources?	March 31, 2011.
Having a stake in society.
Increasing estate pride.	To deliver residents basic concerns, eg dealing with dog fouling.	(i) increased satisfaction with, and pride in, the Shard End area. (ii) improved performance against % of young people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (iii) improved performance against the extent to which young people think they can influence local decision making and service design (NI 4).		Margaret Dieterman lead, but multi agency.	Existing resources.		September 30, 2010.
Drug cultivation and trafficking. Local people and newcomers groomed into using their property as cannabis factories.	(i) stamp out cannabis factories by active police and community activity. (ii) public information campaign reinforcing impact on local community of drug cultivation and how to identify factory cultivation.	(i) police intelligence suggests that cannabis factories are being identified and shut down. (ii) publicity campaign about the impact of drug cultivation and how to identify factory cultivation has been carried out. (iii) improved performance against perceptions of drug use or drug dealing as a problem (NI 42).		WMP, Housing, Services, and local residents.	Existing resources.		September 30, 2010.
Improve life chances and health outcomes.	Sexual health and awareness information in schools and youth venues.	(i) Health and awareness campaign completed. (ii) under 18 conception rate (NI 112).		Local authority and PCT health promotion.	Targeting of existing resources		March 31, 2011.
Low aspirations and educational achievement.	Encourage people to have aspirations for their kids. (i) marketing campaign for positive pride in Shard End and opportunities for success. (ii) publication of and publicity of success stories. (iii) link Shard End to Birmingham City of Culture bid. (iv) school work to link Shard End to Birmingham as a world city. (v) offer travel opportunities. (vi) more reward schemes for young people	(i) increased applications for Further Education and Higher Education. (ii) youth forums are active. (iii) improved performance against % of people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (iv) improved performance against achievement of 5 or more A*-C grades at GCSE or equivalent including English and Maths (NI 75). (vii) improved performance against secondary schools judged as having good or outstanding standards of behaviour (NI 86). (viii) improved performance against secondary school persistent absence rate (NI 87). (ix) improved performance against percentage of schools providing access to extended services (NI 88). (x) improved performance against participation of 17 year-olds in education or training (NI 91). (xi) improved performance against young people’s participation in positive activities (NI 110). (xii) improved performance against 16 to 18 year olds who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) (NI 117).		Graham Gault.	To investigate pot of £10,000 to recruit marketing specialist.		March 31, 2011.
Generating and channelling community spirit.	Annual residents’ conference.	(i) residents’ conference held. (ii) improved performance against % of people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (iii) improved performance against civic participation in the local area (NI 3). (iv) improved performance against the extent to which people think they can influence local decision making and service design (NI 4).		Margaret Dieterman with housing management.	Housing management.		October 31, 2010.
Increasing community safety.	(i) develop Neighbourhood Watch. (ii) support Neighbourhood Watch with increased tasking walkabouts, for example between police and residents. (iii) publicise stories of local resolution of difficulties that residents can empathise with. (iv) investigate a restorative justice scheme for Shard End.	(i) increase number of Neighbourhood Watch schemes. (ii) tasking walkabouts introduced throughout Shard End. (iii) success stories have been publicised. (iv) viability of a restorative scheme investigated. (v) improved performance against perceptions that people in the area treat one another with respect and dignity (NI 23).		Margaret Dieterman with housing management and West Midlands Police	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Increasing community safety.	Continue target hardening scheme for all residents.	(i) target hardening schemes to be continued. (ii) funding obtained though “profits from crime” and/or RIEP.		West Midlands Police.	Additional resources.		March 31, 2011.
Generating and channelling community spirit.	Break down post code divisions on Shard End.	(iii) stronger and more inclusive Shard End identity. (iv) improved performance against % of people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (v) improved performance against overall/general satisfaction with local area (NI 5).		Margaret Dieterman with housing management and West Midlands Police.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Peer support.	(i) implement DNA youth peer trainer initiative. (ii) source funding to maintain initiative..	(i) DNA youth peer trainer initiative implemented. (ii) funding obtained to maintain initiative. (iii) improved performance against % of people who believe people from different backgrounds get on well together in their local area (NI1). (iv) improved performance against emotional health of children (NI 50).		Margaret need details!!	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Supporting older people.	(i) engage with older people and organise activities for them. (ii) tackle ageism. (iii) tackle distraction burglaries targeted on frail and vulnerable.	(i) greater engagement results with older people. (ii) programme of activities organised and run. (iii) publicity programme to tackle ageism. (iv) reduction in distraction burglaries targeted on frail and vulnerable. (v) improved performance against % of people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (vi) improved performance against civic participation in the local area (NI 3). (vii) improved performance against overall/general satisfaction with local area (NI 5). (viii) improved performance against perceptions that people in the area treat one another with respect and dignity (NI 23).		Graham Gault	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Increased networking and intelligence.	Joining up KINs (Key Individual Networks) with other local networks.	(i) KINs form part of a wider local intelligence network. (ii) improved performance against civic participation in the local area (NI 3). (iii) improved performance against % of people who feel they can influence decisions in their locality (NI 4).		Margaret Dieterman.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
being proud of the City
Developing pride though sharing what we have in common.	(i) identify common activities that are used already by different cultures. (ii) extension of myth busting and welcome packs to emphasise what we have in common. (iii) extension of aspirational work to develop pride in what the community can do together. (iv) sports and social activities are targeted on developing community strength.	(i) activities are long term – building meaningful contact. (ii) individual activities have been linked to maximise their impact. (iii) improved performance against % of people who believe people from different backgrounds get on well together in their local area (NI 1). (iv) improved performance against % of people who feel that they belong to their neighbourhood (NI 2). (v) improved performance against overall/general satisfaction with local area (NI 5).		Margaret Dieterman.	Existing resources.		March 31, 2011.
Community assets.	(i) include asset transfer in Neighbourhood Management programmes. (ii) engage with faith communities and develop faith resources. (iii) link community assets to service improvement.	(i) asset transfer included in Neighbourhood Management programmes. (ii) engaged with faith communities and developed faith resources. (iii) community assets linked to service improvement.		Birmingham City Council Property Services.	Corporate resource decision.		March 31, 2011.
Improved environment.	(i) increased access to local green spaces. (ii) increased access to school allotments and residents’ allotments.	(i) access to local green spaces has increased. (ii) school allotments and residents’ allotments are more accessible to Shard Enders.		Birmingham City Council Environmental Services	Corporate resource decision.		March 31, 2011.

Medium Secure Unit: update

Liam Byrne MP — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 17:52:47 +0000

One of the projects we have been campaigning against is the proposed Medium Secure Unit in Bordesley Green.

I wrote to Ian Cumming, the Chief Executive of the West Midlands Strategic Health Authority. He told me that:

The full business case is being developed by the Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health Foundation Trust (BSMHFT) and will be considered by the Foundation Trust Board in March 2010. The Trust have made an application to Monitor by Birmingham and Solihill Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust to extend its Tier 2 borrowing limit by £33 million for the purposes of building the Yardley Green unit and this has received the necessary approval. Monitor is the financial regulator of Foundation Trusts and forms its own assessment on the financial viability and risk profile of major investments – this is not the responsibilty of the Strategic Health Authority. The decision as to whether to finance, build and run such a unit rests with the Foundation Trust Board.

I’m now pursuing the local trust for answers. Watch this space for more…

Byrne Celebrates Bromford & Firs Lottery Win

Liam Byrne MP — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 09:59:13 +0000

Liam Byrne MP today thanked the Big Lottery Team for awarding the Bromford & Firs over £1 million in long term funding for good causes on the estates.

The MP met Lottery chief executive Peter Wanless at the Commons last month and was briefed on the final details at his Hodge Hill office last Friday.

The money is part of a new scheme called ‘Big Local’ and is the only award in Birmingham. The money is available for investment in ideas nominated by local residents over 5-10 years.

Liam said;

‘This is a fantastic lottery win for the Bromford & Firs. We’ve been building up the strength of residents’ groups with our meetings and surveys for 5 years and today we got our reward. This is one more victory for people power. The Big Lottery Fund could see the Bromford and Firs needed investment and recognised we have the strength to use the money wisely.

“We’ve been fighting hard for the investment the Bromford needs. We’ve won £10 million for a new health centre, over £1 million to blow up the old tower blocks, and today we’ve £1 million for transforming the quality of life on the estate. It is nothing less than the local residents deserve.”

Byrne has been building up a network of social entrepreneurs in Hodge Hill dedicated to transforming the community through his Hodge Hill 2020 plan. Today’s news follows an award of £85,000 last month from the Heritage Lottery Fund to begin work transforming Ward End.

Liam Byrne also announced today the date for his next ‘Community Funders Conference’ bringing together charitable funders like UnLtd and Big Lottery Fund with local groups.

The conference will be held on 8th October at the Beaufort Sports & Social Club, Coleshill Road.

The definitive guide for young people to what’s on locally

Liam Byrne MP — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 17:10:18 +0000

If you’re looking for things for young people to do, and you live in the Pelham, Washwood Heath, or Saltley, here’s a fantastic new directory to download. Well done to the team who pulled it together.

Final 2010 version

Well done, St Paul’s!

Liam Byrne MP — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 17:46:13 +0000

I had the privilege of opening the community day at the Ideal Park in Bordesely Green this afternoon. Lots of stalls, games for kids and even a bit of Bollywood dancing.

Liam and Mrs Kattack open the community day

A huge well done to Mrs Khattak, Sarah Cooper, and the team from St Paul’s Crossover, the neighbourhood management and the Ideal Park group.

Our new £12 million health centre takes shape

Liam Byrne MP — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 17:06:59 +0000

Friday found me on Clodeshall Road inspecting progress on our new £12 million health centre. It is incredible!

Liam Byrne up on the 3rd floor of the new health centre

It’s basically the size of a small hospital, with a three storey glass fronted atrium stretching down the centre of the building, consulting rooms, x-ray facilities, community spaces, and a community cafe. Upto 50 people are working through-out the week to get the building finished to the very highest environmental standards.

The construction team brief Liam on progress

The good news is the construction team leaders tell me their plan is on-track to hand over the community next April. It’s going to make the world of difference.

The shape of things to come

Liam Byrne MP — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 09:58:26 +0000

Today’s GDP data confirmed the recovery had taken quite a hold in Labour’s final months of office.

National output was up by a huge 1.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2010 with good growth across the board. Services output was up 0.9 per cent; government and other services rose 0.9 per cent, production output rose 1.0 per cent, manufacturing was up 1.6% and construction output was up a huge 6.6 per cent.

So, the question now is what kind of recovery lies ahead?

If growth carries on at last quarter’s pace we could start to see unemployment coming down fairly soon. And this week there was some news to support the idea that economic momentum was gathering. The CBI’s industrial production figures showed this week that more firms were feeling a rise in local orders and exports, and retail sales, perhaps boosted by the World Cup, beat analysts’ expectations.

But a couple of big problems loom.

First, it’s hard to tell just how high growth needs to go before unemployment starts falling.

During the recession, firms have been ‘hoarding labour’. Instead of laying people off, workers have been put on shorter hours. As growth now returns, we’re seeing a sharp rise in productivity as output goes up – but hours stay fairly fixed. The ONS has a neat summary. Simply put, firms are getting more out their existing workers; they’re taking new people on. We just don’t know how long this ‘unhoarding’ is going to take.

Second, and just as serious is the weak state of confidence now acting as a hand-brake on business investment and consumer spending.

Abroad there are siren voices warning that coordinated austerity is damping down global growth, which could hit UK exports. Nouriel Roubini, an economist who can boast he predicted the crash warned this week global growth was heading for a sharp slowdown towards the end of the year and in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the economic outlook looked ‘unusually uncertain’.

Here at home, the minutes of July’s Monetary Policy Committee released on Wednesday, concluded that the economy had now “deteriorated a little”. Bank of England officials said that while the impact of the budget measures on the economy were “hard to gauge,” it was “likely that they had pushed down a little on the most likely path for output.” The medium-term outlook for growth “might have weakened too.”

None of this is good for confidence.

In the boardroom ’private sector thrift’ is still halting a flow of new funds into the kind of investment we need for future growth (on which there is a good discussion at the Economist, here) as British industry gets cold feet about the future. This, as Lord Skidelsky explained this week, is simply a consequence of the New Unease triggered by the Government’s economic plan;

“Actually…we have as a rule only the vaguest idea of any but the most direct consequences of our acts.” [wrote Keynes]. This made investment, which is always a bet on the future, dependent on fluctuating states of confidence. Financial markets, through which investment is made, were always liable to collapse when something happened to disturb business confidence.

So, why is business worried?

Quite simply because the government is about to sack potentially hundreds of thousands of public sector workers. If there aren’t private sector jobs for them to go to soon, then unemployment is going to liable to rocket.

We already know that consumers who are lucky enough to have a job are not seeing the recovery fatten up their pay packets. Last week we learned average earnings growth including bonuses decreased in the year to May 2010, from the April rate of 4.1 per cent to 2.7 per cent in May 2010. That doesn’t bode well for a bounce back in consumer spending.

Yet it could get even worse. The government’s economic plan needs a very fast revival in the private sector’s animal spirits to create jobs for potentially hundreds of thousands of lay-offs from the public sector. In Birmingham for example, a 9% cut to the city’s 156,000 public service workers could put unemployment to almost 18%. Without opportunities to go to, unemployment in towns and cities across Britain is set to spiral to levels seen in countries like Spain.

The party of the recovery

Liam Byrne MP — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 09:00:34 +0000

So, we had confirmation this morning. Labour is the party of the recovery. This morning the ONS published data showing second quarter GDP growth hit 1.1% – a huge step up from the 0.3% we saw in the first quarter.

But, crucially, Labour managed the recovery in a way that kept unemployment down. That’s why David Miliband is right to say in the FT today that what George Osborne now has to fix is the ‘jobs deficit’ in his plan to slow the recovery down.

Britain was hit by the worst global recession for 60 years